[svnt]

I would appreciate another example where a major new communications technology peaks in its implementation within the first year after it is introduced to the market.

[mi3law]

FTX / crypto, which just imploded last year.

Look, I'm an AGI/AI researcher myself. I believe and bleed this stuff. AI is here to stay and is forever a part of computing in many ways. Sam Altman and others bastardized it by overhyping it to current levels, derailing real work. All the traction OpenAI has accumulated, outside of github copoilot / codex, is itself so far away from product-market fit that people are playing off the novelty of AGI / the GPT/AI being on its way to "smarter" than human rather than any real usage.

Hype in tech is real. Overhype and bubbles are real. In AI in particular, there's been AI winters because of the overhype.

[svnt]

It seems we are talking about multiple different things. I never denied hype was a thing.

You’re talking about hype cycles now. Previously it seemed like you said AI was not going to be advancing.

LLMs are maybe headed into oversold territory, but LLMs are not the end of AI, even in the near term. They are just the UI front end.

[KaiserPro]

> major new communications technology peaks in its implementation within the first year after it is introduced to the market.

Peak is perhaps the wrong word, local maximum before falling into the Trough of Disillusionment.