[bmitc]

Who knows? The job market is really crazy at times. I got contacted by an ex-company asking if I'd consider coming back, and then they never really even followed up after I showed potential interest, and they eventually said "they don't see a fit" when I followed up. Like, huh? They contacted me.

In my view, the best a referral can do for you is to get eyes on your application and potentially bump it up in the stack. Unless you really know the specific hiring manager well, that seems like the best that's going to happen.