[richardw]

When the costs of running those gas cars becomes irrational to continue, purchasing behaviour will accelerate. We keep being surprised how fast this transition is happening, those surprises are more likely to continue than not.

2035 is a long time away. iPhone was released 16 years ago and the world changed within the next decade.

When cheap cars and trucks really arrive the primary limit will be supply. ~nobody uses feature phones anymore. Electric vehicles could well be like that once we get real scale, and especially in countries that don’t currently have very high car ownership because they won’t be defending the old regime. Countries that embrace and accelerate this change will receive the most economic benefits.

[nottorp]

The most irrational thing, cost wise, is to replace a working car that you've paid off.

[matthewdgreen]

Next time you take a drive, count the fraction of cars on the road that are >= 7 years old. Now imagine those cars are the only ICE vehicles on the road and everything newer is electric. Consider what’s that fraction, how much disposable cash do you think those folks will have, and how many inexpensive gas stations and mechanics will continue to stay in business to support those people?

[alvah]

Depends on the definition of "working". Modern cars are full of components that unexpectedly cost $thousands to replace. I prefer to replace my family's cars when the manufacturer's warranty expires, having been caught out a few times now with stupid repair bills for 4-8 year old cars.

[richardw]

Won’t argue. I had one car for 14 years.

But if the car is likely to plunge in value, I might choose to move faster to offload it. People will either do that or keep it until it dies. Enthusiastic countries will accelerate the process by increasing taxes on older vehicles.

[ric2b]

People were used to switching their phones quite often when the iPhone came out, and the iPhone and other smartphones were about 100x cheaper than buying a car.

Expecting a similar transition period is extremely naive.