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by M4v3R 945 days ago
> Suppose I make a massive book of predictions. Some of which turn out to be correct. Am I now capable of predicting the future?

If you write a book of random predictions without any insight the vast majority of them will be false, so even if few of them are right it is not impressive nor anyone would say you're capable of predicting the future.

In comparison, the OP states that GPT-4 predictions are 97% correct. And yes, I would say that is pretty impressive. If 97% of anything I say about the future was correct I would be considered a wizard and probably be a billionaire.
2 comments
vsnf 945 days ago
>If you write a book of random predictions without any insight the vast majority of them will be false, so even if few of them are right it is not impressive nor anyone would say you're capable of predicting the future.

Isn't this step for step exactly what Nostradamus did?

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M4v3R 945 days ago
Basically yes, plus he was as vague as he could be to cover many possible outcomes. That’s why no educated person takes his „prophecies” seriously.
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numpad0 945 days ago
> If you write a book of random predictions without any insight the vast majority of them will be false

And you just hallucinated that! It's just, if there was a system that only talks in an oddly definitive hypotheticals, they can be correct about a lot, and GPT-* are exactly that.

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