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by viknesh 945 days ago
> it varies considerably by income, location, and whether you do drugs

It's not even that complicated - if you've lived to age 54, you've already lived long enough to not die for the first 54 years and so your life expectancy is higher than the default "no info" value of 73 years old.

According to https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html, you have an expected 25 years left.

1 comments

Mildly interesting: If lifetimes were exponentially distributed (they're not, of course), they'd have a well defined mean, but your future life expectancy would never change. If the mean were 90 years old, and you were 102, you could still expect another 90 years. I bring this up because it's sort of the extreme spherical cow version of what you're saying.
Neat fact! I guess that's basically Martingales for life expectancy?
Yeah, I don't think about Martingales a lot, but after reviewing the definition -- this literally is one.

In discrete time it's very simple; you just roll the dice every day, and if they come up snake eyes, Zeus smites you with a lightning bolt.