[pilot_pirx]

I can imagine such a future very easily. For one thing the other parties will take over some of their positions (especially the Green and the Liberal). Then there is the Pirate Parties lack of positions in many other areas of everyday politics which makes them rather uninteresting for many voters. And they still have internal quarrels which will become stronger if they gain power and may eventually break the party (hopefully not). There is a slight hype about them at the moment, but this will cool down. And then there will be a time, when the main struggles about internet freedom cools down and there are agreements and laws made (this will somehow never end finally, but it won't matter that much anymore). That's a similar situation as the Green party had to face many years ago, when they had managed to establish laws to protect the environment.

On the long run I see them around 8 to 10 percent, depending on region (more in cities) and which positions they take in areas like education, finances, taxes... At least if they can stabilize their internal structure and avoid the problems I mentioned. But this will be enough to make them interesting as a partner in coalitions, especially together with the Green Party and that way forcing the established parties to rethink their own positions.

[cabalamat]

> And then there will be a time, when the main struggles about internet freedom cools down

This will omnly happen when governments and businesses stop trying to take away our freedom, i.e. not soon.

> That's a similar situation as the Green party had to face many years ago, when they had managed to establish laws to protect the environment.

Well, the Green Party still exists, and is doing rather well in Germany.

[pilot_pirx]

1) I guess you are right, but at least here in Europe we can expect that matters get settled at some point in time. We do not have this law culture where a new law can be proposed over and over again in different forms. (Though there are tricks around that and who know...)

2) Yes, because they managed to move from a single focus to become a party with an established program and well known politicians. But they have very similar voters and so that new party is partially splitting forces. The Green Party will maybe react by adjusting their program in Pirate direction.

But of course a lot of things can happen and we will see. At least this Pirate success will show certain interest groups to be careful about their actions. A party that can jump above 10% out of nothing just about a single item of interest was something not expected by them. They will have to recon with that force.