[xcv123]

> Also, how do they know that "Apple does not intend to lock down what OS you can use on Macs"

They don't. And it really doesn't matter to some people. The current hardware is not locked down, therefore it can always run Linux. Future devices are not guaranteed to work, but those do not exist today.

> Buying a $2k machine to realize it doesn't support my workflow

You're simply not the target user. The people who are enthusiastically using Asahi know what to expect and are happy with it as it runs the software they need to use today. Of course it is not a mainstream option that every Linux user can use.

> that it will continue to work for at least a few years.

Once the hardware in your device is reverse engineered and drivers developed for it, that is done and will continue to work for a long time. The risk is future devices (Apple M6, M7, etc).