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by qznc
946 days ago
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This is indeed a problem for long-term markets but long-term is more about 10 years and longer here. Something like "Will China invade Taiwan before 2040?" is a long-term example. Prediction markets are nearly 50-50 for democrat vs republican president currently. That is a 100% yield if you are correct. It isn't about the yield. It is about much more accurate you are. If your oracle gives you 60-40, you will still lose lots of bets but you will easily beat the 5% yield of treasure bills. |
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