[aidenn0]

#3 makes it look like things predicted as "very likely not" (10-20%) and "very likely so" (80-90%) tend to be biased towards the contrarian view. Does Metaculus have limits that make it unprofitable to make bets things that would push them outside the window? Anecdotally I've seen quotes from prediction marktets that show a surprisingly high chance for things that are incredibly improbable (to the point that I would call them "impossible" in casual conversation).

[johnfn]

I've been snagged by a few markets that were in the high 90s or low 10s and looked like free money, but ended up resolving the other way. It's usually either 1) there was some subtlety in how the market was written that causes it to resolve unexpectedly or 2) a true inversion - it just seems like human nature to under-predict how often they actually happen.

[aidenn0]

In this case the markets are overpredicting inversions; there's at most a very small difference between how often markets predicted at 5% and markets predicted at 20% resolve as "no." Same for the 75%-95% range.