[toyg]

Did you read those pieces? They say the factors pushing up the French economy are one-offs that will soon fan out, and Germany has massive fiscal resources still to be deployed.

I don't have a dog in this fight, TBH I don't even think it's a fight - the two countries fundamentally need each other.

[chaostheory]

I don’t have anything to gain either from my position.

The issue with the articles (I can find more from earlier years) is that they’ve been saying the same thing using a variety short term rationale for decades.

imo The EU in general and even internally within Germany itself has fears of a resurgent Germany given its past, which makes sense

https://carnegieeurope.eu/2014/03/14/foundations-of-german-p...

I think I got the main idea from Peter Zeihan, but I can’t seem to find anything with Google. Need a better search engine

[toyg]

I think I can guess what you're referring to.

When German reunification was being discussed, right after the Wall fell, other European governments (France, Italy, UK) agreed not to oppose it in exchange for German commitment to the European Economic Community (as it was then called) and to adopt the common currency that was then being designed (the ECU was still a virtual currency). This was seen as "straight jacketing" Germany, forcing it to share its economic fortunes with the whole continent, impeding a resurgence of all-out competition with France, and hence ensuring peace. This has been reported by then-leaders who were literally in the room with Helmut Kohl as things were agreed: they called it "reunification (in exchange) for peace".

This approach has fundamentally worked: Germany doesn't, and cannot, see itself in any future that does not involve the EU, and them adopting the Euro ensured its short-term success. It did, however, work a bit too well for the German economy, which now benefits from a large market where other players cannot fix trade imbalances with currency devaluation. That is a structural advantage that they will enjoy for a very long time (possibly forever), enshrining their role as the biggest economy in the bloc. I don't see this changing anytime soon, as long as the Euro is around.

[chaostheory]

Thanks for enlightening me. Since it wasn’t clear, my question in my first comment was actually a question and not a rhetorical one i.e. I didn’t really know anything