[semiquaver]

All the concrete examples in that article are of cooperating witnesses who “only” got five years when they were facing life. Gary wang might not get any time but Caroline Ellison pled to charges carrying 110 years. Leniency for her means 3-5 years incarcerated.

[pclmulqdq]

You mean the one concrete example of the mob boss who got 5 years for 19 murders because he cooperated, right? In your mind, are 19 murders equivalent to 7 counts of fraud?

Do you realize that those 19 murders likely carried 19 consecutive life sentences as a maximum sentence?

[scott_w]

That's not how sentencing guidelines work. The judge won't look at what was handed out to a murderer to decide how to handle a fraud case. They'll look at fraud cases to decide that.

[dragonwriter]

Well, no, the way the guidelines work is that they’ll look at the guidelines themselves.

But presumably there will be at least some effort to secure a substantial downward departure from the guidelines sentence.

[scott_w]

Well yes but that’s kind of a roundabout way of comparing fraud sentences with fraud sentences ;-)

[pclmulqdq]

The parent commenter had decided that "life for 19 murders = 110 years for fraud," so she would get 3-5 years. I agree with you that they are not analogous.

However, all of the expert opinion I have seen on this suggests that there will be no jail time.

[semiquaver]

There was a murder example and a fraud example in the article. Comparison is different than equation.

[AtlasBarfed]

And fraud is nonviolent! Plus no repeat offender, and soft slush money and influence that the judicial system is awash in.

SBF even if he gets a huge sentence will just get eventually pardoned after 6-10 years. Again, soft slush money.

[eric_cc]

> even if he gets a huge sentence will just get eventually pardoned after 6-10 years

According to you? Because “trust me bro”? What are basing this on?

[AtlasBarfed]

Well, you see, when presidents come out of office, a bunch of things start happening which the general public is pretty ignorant of:

- they go visit the Saudi rulers. Yes, the most powerful political leader goes TO SAUDI ARABIA to kiss ass. Why?

- they begin planning/fundraising for a "presidential library"

- they plan their "offices", often with donations

- they have the power to pardon people with no restriction

- ye old speech circuit

- in a similar vein, the Trump inauguration exposed the various inauguration slush funds used by presidents over the years when they get elected.

In case you don't get it, all of this involves slush money and backchannels and the like. Granted the pardon power is more visible than most since Clinton pardoned a lot of white collar stuff: https://www.justice.gov/pardon/pardons-granted-president-wil... particularly Marc Rich.

And the old game of announced sentences vs the actual amounts served is often hilarious.

Between "good behavior", connections to get in lower security facilities, reduction on appeal, and of course there are tricks like only having to show up to actual prison months after sentencing (Elizabeth Holmes took 5 months before actually having to report to prison).

Yeah the feds don't do as lenient good behavior, but you can still get 54 days credit per year served.

There's other tricks. SBF might be able to help recover funds if he cooperates after conviction, and that can lead to prison being delayed further.

So sure it seems like SBF is getting his comeuppance, and he's way too famous for reductions, but the news cycle is remarkably fast, and the public will forget about him in a year or two.

Kenneth Lay allegedly died of a heart attack before going to prison. Now, I would like to assume that was above board, but based on a couple of my relatives dying, death is a bunch of forms and a cremation of ... some body.

[kspacewalk2]

Hey, that mob boss has a Youtube channel!

https://www.youtube.com/@officialsammythebull

[michaelt]

> In your mind, are 19 murders equivalent to 7 counts of fraud?

Well, it was a very big fraud.

If the median prison sentence for nonviolent theft of a $30,000 car is 2 years, why shouldn't the prison sentence for stealing $3 billion be 200,000 years?

[ttymck]

Surely it's because anything over ~100 years is the "maximum punishment": you die before you see freedom. Sentences are scaled to the human lifespan.

[pclmulqdq]

Because that's not how any of this works.