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by bllchmbrs 962 days ago
There are 2 problems with the analysis in the article:

1. They choose startups from 2014-2015. Valuations were (a) more reasonable then and (b) we've just been through one of the biggest bull markets of tech stocks in the past decades. 2. That taking the "Mean Valuation Growth" over that time period is meaningless if (a) there hasn't been a liquidity event and (b) if the mean is weighted by outliers (which it always is).

Portfolio / VC strategy is a bet on power laws. We, as employees, don't have that opportunity. That means we've got to be deliberate about who we join to try to hit a power law outcome.

Am I crazy here?