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Keep an eye on Australia, Snowy 2 (whose costs are blowing out) [1], and battery uptake [2]. Based on cost decline curves of lithium scale utility storage, batteries will be cheaper by the time Snowy is commissioned. Battery manufacturing is ramping because every automaker is being forced to electrify, Tesla is preparing to build a second Megafactory factory for battery storage in China [3], and batteries can be installed anywhere. Batteries can also provide grid support (frequency and voltage support when transmission or generators trip) and can be grid forming now; instead of having to follow the grid, they can drive grid health, including black start [4] when the grid is down. In South Australia, a new battery storage facility has recently come online and is in testing to enable AEMO, the grid operator, to turn down the requirement for ~70MW of constant fossil gas generation for grid services [5]. [1] https://reneweconomy.com.au/snowy-2-much-how-can-a-2-2gw-wat... ("This is the fourth time Snowy 2.0’s cost has been reset – from $2 billion in 2017, to $3.8-$4.5 billion later that year, to $5.1 billion in 2019, to $5.9 billion in 2020, to $12 billion now (2023).") [2] https://www.energy-storage.news/global-bess-deployments-to-e... ("Global BESS deployments to exceed 400GWh annually by 2030, says Rystad Energy") [3] https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-china-megafactory-constructi... ("Tesla’s estimated initial production capacity for the China-based Megapack factory is 10,000 units per year or about 40GWh.") [My note: This is equal to their existing capacity in Lathrop, California] [4] https://www.nrel.gov/grid/black-start.html [5] https://opennem.org.au/facilities/sa1/?selected=TIB&tech=bat... ("Torrens Island BESS") |
There was always much better ways the money could have been spent, like investment into offshore wind, battery banks etc. but to directly invest in renewables and battery storage was and is politically untenable for that party. The Government has changed now to the party that doesn't have the same kind of direct fossil fuel investments, but unfortunatly the massive political donations from the resource industry and oil & gas to our politicians is bipartisan so they talk 'clean energy' while not that much actually changes...