[patrickrafferty]

Just a dumb headline.

First, household formation has accelerated dramatically over the last 5 years (see article below). This trend will likely continue, and/or accelerate for many more years. Many of the major homebuilders have seen this coming (e.g. DR Horton).

Second, the lost value of office buildings did not merely dissipate - it just follows where people are spending time. Data from Kastle Systems suggests foot traffic back to office is roughly half of what it was pre-covid (40% to 50%). Those hours people are not in an office, they are in homes. If you have a bunch of adults spending ~20 additional hours per week in the home, they will value their homes more.

When I was doing appraisal in the aftermath of 08, the buyers driving the speculation looked nothing like the buyers waiting in line today.

https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/surge-household-growth-and....