[nuclearnice3]

Approximately $333k after 20% inflation over the period.

https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=278200&year1=2...

Yes, I think you are right to frame it as a supply shortage. The prices might be rational, eg not a bubble, considering how many people want houses and how few have been built.

Compare Tokyo. [1]

> In the past half century, by investing in transit and allowing development, the city has added more housing units than the total number of units in New York City. It has remained affordable by becoming the world’s largest city. It has become the world’s largest city by remaining affordable.

> Two full-time workers earning Tokyo’s minimum wage can comfortably afford the average rent for a two-bedroom apartment in six of the city’s 23 wards. By contrast, two people working minimum-wage jobs cannot afford the average rent for a two-bedroom apartment in any of the 23 counties in the New York metropolitan area.

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/11/opinion/editorials/tokyo-...

[ahmeneeroe-v2]

Made this comment elsewhere, but CPI is partially derived from the cost of housing, so you can't really use CPI here.

[nuclearnice3]

I like the way you think.

Here's CPI for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Shelter in U.S. City Average. [1] Index level in August 2019 234.853 Index level in Sept 2023 280.869

An increase of 20%. Very similar to overall CPI.

So rent hasn't kept up with housing prices? Some other anomaly in the calculation of CPI?

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0L2

[ahmeneeroe-v2]

hey thanks nuclearnice3! I like the way you think too

[nuclearnice3]

there were two questions. perhaps, opine, as an expression of your gratitude.

[bluGill]

Note that Japan's population is not growing, though i'm not sure how the Tokyo region compares.

[dog321]

Maybe not the case in Japan, but I think a more important metric is household formation and sqft demand per person. NYC population declined during and after the pandemic, but household formation rose, leading to increased demand.

https://x.com/ModeledBehavior/status/1646151980966879232?s=2...

[neverdot]

Large cities in Japan generally grow while the countryside shrinks. Kids don't want to live in boring towns with no work.

The housing itself is also cheaper. For example, indoor hallways in apartments are considered luxury.

[chii]

i was reading somewhere that it's the rural areas in japan that's depopulating, because all the young people are moving to larger cities in search for economic opportunities.

So while the population of japan is declining as a whole, the metro areas are growing in size.