[btilly]

Both sides are right here.

First of all I don't care how much you've spent on advertising, or how much experience you have. Human brains are hardwired to see patterns that don't really exist. If you haven't done the math then I guarantee that your intuition for what matters is way wrong.

However going the other way, people take standards from the science world into A/B testing that are not appropriate. If you're testing a ton of ideas, getting the right answer 3x out of 4, and not going far wrong most of the rest of the time is a pretty good result. It is certainly a lot better than concluding that it is too hard to test those ideas at all.

But if you have a specific idea you want tested, or if you want all ideas tested to a certain confidence, then you really, really need to either do the math, or to get someone to do the math for you. Because the human brain is a pattern finding machine, and you want real answers, not made up stuff.