[fallentimes]

But I think what Dustin is saying (correct me if I'm wrong) is that the multiplier applies both ways. And that the total cost of making a 5 minute downtime mistake, even to a million users, could easily be outweighed by the benefits of releasing a product/feature/site 2 weeks early. In most cases, I think large companies are risk adverse instead of risk neutral to situations like this.

I agree with both of you that it varies considerably based on what the site does (infrastructure, videos, games, etc).

[mechanical_fish]

In most cases, I think large companies are risk adverse instead of risk neutral to situations like this.

I'm not going to argue with that. Just because a certain increase of caution is rational doesn't mean that caution isn't being overapplied in many cases, just as PG suggests in his original post.