They tried to murder him and after spending time in a German hospital he decided to go back knowing that they'll imprison him or try to kill him again.
I think the risk was huge (personally I thought 50-70% at the time), but not 99% or something. Also (in my opinion) people don't take into account that alternative was irrelevance in exile, just look at what happened with Kasparov's popularity inside Russia, and he was a prominent opposition activist in 2011-2012.
Still, people tend to value their life higher than their relevance - I mean, in the West he could have probably lived a comfortable life writing books and articles, working as a TV expert on Russia etc. I also respect his decision, but seeing that the powers that be already tried to kill him once, the chances of him returning to Russia and not being arrested were even lower than 1% I would say...
> Still, people tend to value their life higher than their relevance
That's exactly what sets rare individuals like Navalny apart: that what they believe in, what they stand for, weighs heavier than their personal well-being.
> he wants the same Russian empire as Putin, but with less corruption.
Exactly. I don't understand fascination of some westerners towards Navalny. He used to attend nazi rallies (literal sieg-heiling nazis, not "you are slightly right of Bernie"), then assumed veneer of political respectability without ever formally denouncing his previous talking points and started campaigning with the main premise of basically "I'll be better and less corrupt Czar of Russian empire". There is nothing liberal or democratic about this guy's political views.
> irrelevance in exile, just look at what happened with Kasparov's popularity inside Russia
Then again, Kasparov undermines Russia more efficiently while in exile than Navalny while inside (a prison no less). And Navalvy social media statements in exile might have been even more undermining Kasparov's.
Of course, undermining Russia with words might not help at all anyway...
Whatever Kasparov says or does in exile is quite irrelevant in Russia. This is how actual Russians think:
"He's not even in Russia, what does he know."
I don't know why Navalny returned to Russia after being poisoned and nearly killed by Putin's thugs, but it was a very brave thing to do. It makes no sense.
As close as I can tell, Russians tend to be very fatalistic. It's never been a happy place. It's cold, the state is corrupt, life is cheap. But people have a strong personal need for justice, to find those guilty and make them pay. But the state won't deliver justice, so you make a stand, and life is cheap so you take risks and double down. Hence Navalny, hence Litvinenko, hence all the journalists over the years who reported until they were thrown out windows or gunned down in public. Incredibly brave, I only wish the bravery led to real change rather than a neverending Greek tragedy.
It is because as a person you feel nothing else can be done. So you do the thing that you can do, knowing that probably it can't change much but... what else can you do? Doing nothing like everyone else? From the outside it looks like madness, but when you are that person it seems like keeping your integrity and being able to look in the mirror.
That's my point. He had put everything at risk because he knew it was the right thing to do. When choosing between doing what you think is best and what keeps you safe, people often choose the later.
At the day he returned, he released his grandest and most damning documentary about Putin's $1B palace and the ways it was financed. Maybe he hoped people would rise up and overturn Putin with him leading the masses.
I think he miscalculated the degree of cruelty he’ll experience. Also his move itself could be the trigger as if this cruelty would nit be there, then he would have been a hero winning, not a hero losing. Steps “had to be made”, sadly.
What has allowed the Russian state to treat him with such a degree of cruelty is the war with Ukraine. News of his arrest, imprisonment, and treatment in jail were overshadowed by those of another airstrike on a civilian population. Not to mention, it sent a clear message to internal opposition that those willing to act against the state would face not just legal hurdles but also tyranny and physical violence.
I don't know... they tried to kill him and they killed people before for less. Knowing some Russian and Soviet history it's pretty clear what mentality you're fighting.
While Navalny's courage in facing political persecution is commendable, it's important to contextualize his earlier views to understand him fully.
Before his imprisonment and prior to the escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, Navalny held positions that some might describe as nationalistic. For example, his stance on Crimea has been ambivalent, with statements that sometimes tacitly accept Russia's annexation of the region.
Navalny has a history of ethnocentric comments and has been involved in nationalist rallies in Russia. This complicates the narrative that he is solely a liberal figure fighting for democracy.
He opposes Putin's regime, but his political ideology doesn't necessarily align with values of international law, human rights, and economic freedoms.
As much as what you say is factually accurate, I think it's important to contextualize within the broader Russian consciousness.. the same could be said about almost any American. Just as Americans have certain exceptionalism all the way down to their bones, Russia is similar. The idea that a Russian politician wouldn't at times speak in ways that harken back to that core should not be used as something that dismisses a man of incredible courage who is truly exceptional within a body politic of others that are perennially silent. I've seen this trope before and believe it comes from a naive perspective. In order to have any chance of successfully rallying of people you do need to appeal to some of their base instincts
> In order to have any chance of successfully rallying of people you do need
> to appeal to some of their base instincts
I understand your point about the role of nationalism in Russian politics. However, it's crucial for us in the proverbial "West" to have a nuanced understanding of Navalny, because it's too easy to equate "political victimhood" == "purity of intentions".
I'm not questioning his courage or opposition to Putin; my aim is to highlight that his political ideology isn't straightforward.
Should he unexpectedly assume presidency, his past statements make it unclear whether he'd reverse Russia's actions in Ukraine, (but there would be a chance).
It might have been a practical decision too. I guess he calculated that if they want to get to him they'd get to him pretty much anywhere on the planet and still maintain deniability. So might as well go back.
You do know his political stance, right? https://twitter.com/krides/status/1509841011295592450 Do you also have huge respect for Prigozhin for flying back to Moscow after agreeing to stop the revolt? Same energy.
My downstairs neighbour believes in crystals. Which is fine because she's not in a position to force me to use crystals, or the teaching of crystals as a healing method in schools (etc).
Pluralism can be valuable even if all the participants are reprehensible. Ideally they compete each other to a standstill, allowing separation of powers and human rights to gain a foothold.
That said western media does have the habit of glossing over the actual platform of any dictators opposition, see for instance the breathless adoration the Dalai Lama gets.
I think the risk was huge (personally I thought 50-70% at the time), but not 99% or something. Also (in my opinion) people don't take into account that alternative was irrelevance in exile, just look at what happened with Kasparov's popularity inside Russia, and he was a prominent opposition activist in 2011-2012.