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by toomuchtodo 972 days ago
Revenue. Automakers did not build their own networks, so they must now contribute to have access to something required to encourage EV sales.

Gas stations (very roughly speaking! lots of Superchargers are colocated at grocery stores, malls, and other places humans can comfortably dwell for 15-30 min) don't want to front the hundreds of thousands of dollars per station for the equipment, so Tesla did. Paid for out of Model S and X margins early on, and more recently through profits from total sales. Remember, fuel sales are razor thin margins, pennies per gallon. The profit is on the snacks in the gas station store. Similar with fast DC charging, it is not a profit center due to demand charges (utility charges for pulling megawatts of power on demand) and charging infra capex [1] [2] [3]. But you must have this network to soothe range anxiety, as non Supercharger networks in the US are frankly garbage (as the Dept of Energy Secretary recently discovered on a PR EV roadtrip [4]).

> “To dive deeper into this sum-of-the-parts valuation, we modeled & projected out Tesla’s supercharger network, taking into account access & revenues from other OEMs using stations across the United States. Ultimately, we estimate that Tesla’s supercharger business will be roughly 3%-6% of total revenues, translating to a $10 billion – $20 billion business by 2030.” [5]

[1] https://www.mckinsey.com/features/mckinsey-center-for-future... ("Can public EV fast-charging stations be profitable in the United States?")

[2] https://www.utilitydive.com/news/nearly-all-high-voltage-ev-... ("‘Nearly all’ high voltage EV charging stations lose money: Report")

[3] https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497501-evgo-q4-earnings-no... ("EVgo: Not A Go Yet, Still Bleeding Too Much")

[4] https://www.npr.org/2023/09/10/1187224861/electric-vehicles-... ("Electric cars have a road trip problem, even for the secretary of energy")

[5] https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-20b-revenue-access-supe... ("Tesla set to access up to $20B in revenues from Supercharger deals, Dan Ives says")

2 comments

Also, not being abandoned. If the rest of the industry coalesced around CCS, Teslas would be at a disadvantage. Knowing the value of the Supercharger network, this guaranteed Teslas already on the road wouldn’t need an adaptor as often.
NACS is CCS with Tesla's plug on the end. The industry has coalesced around CCS.
> NACS is CCS with Tesla's plug on the end

This description confuses me...

The DC+, DC-, and GND pins look to correspond. But NACS has 2 other pins. CCS1 has 4 other pins, and CCS2 has 6 other pins.

I assume there is some protocol on the other pins. A supercharger can read the car's VIN, for example. And some power/charge-state negotiation? Is all of this excluded from the NACS spec? Do CSS1 and NACS have compatible negotiation protocols?

The extra 2 pins on NACS are the ones that carry the CCS communications protocol. (CP and PP pins)

The CCS1 has the CCS communication pins, a big DC- and DC+ pin, and also three extra pins for AC slow charging (Line 1, Neutral or Line 2, and Protective Earth/communications ground). CCS2 has the DC pins, the communication pins, AC lines 1, 2, and 3, AC neutral, and protective earth/communications ground.

NACS has DC+, DC-, CP, PP, and a ground. Instead of sticking the bulky AC->DC converter in the car, NACS vehicles stick it in the charging station. That means an AC charger can't be as simple (it needs to convert to DC) but also that the car doesn't have to carry around something it only uses while charging.

NACS the DC+ and DC- pins are multi-purpose and can also support AC+/AC- (or, line1/line2. However you want to call it). There is absolutely no need to include a AC->DC converter in standard Level 2 chargers, and NACS does not do this.

NACS is slightly more complicated from a car perspective, as it requires the car to switch between DC and AC paths. There is literally no change from a charger perspective besides the handle, as chargers are not ever designed to be multi-purpose DC vs. AC.

I wonder how it's going to balance out with lost sales though. The supercharger network is no longer a Tesla-exclusive amenity, so one less reason to buy a Tesla.
Tesla has nothing to worry about. Their sales will soften due to the macro and cost of money, their margins might compress, but they are still ahead of the legacy auto folks by leaps and bounds. They can lean into energy storage and other related power control businesses, that is their strength: they are an energy and power controls company. Cars are only one of the products. Legacy auto is selling autos, and only autos. Charger access deals unlocks revenue for Tesla out of legacy auto's pockets today while legacy auto has to figure out how to sell their own EVs in the future, and what choice do they have but to pay up if they want to sell EVs?

> After a decade of being trounced by Tesla Inc., this was supposed to be the year that traditional automakers finally put up a fight for electric cars. General Motors was committing its biggest brands to a new line of electric models; Ford and Volkswagen were ramping up production of EVs designed for the masses. It was, many predicted, time for the automotive world order to re-assert itself.

> Things haven’t turned out that way. Ford’s vaunted F-150 Lightning has been outsold by the R1T from Rivian, a startup that sold its first vehicle just two years ago. GM’s lineup of new EVs has suffered crippling setbacks in battery manufacturing. In July, Volkswagen Chief Executive Officer Thomas Schaefer succinctly summarized his own company’s EV competitiveness: “The roof is on fire.”

> With just three months remaining, 2023 has been less a redemption story for legacy automakers than further evidence of their quagmire. In the US, Tesla has been expanding production about as fast as all of its competitors combined. The Austin, Texas-based EV maker accounts for 61% of fully electric cars ever sold in the US, making it more dominant in EVs than Apple is in smartphones.

https://archive.ph/jfnHS | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-05/where-is-... ("Tesla's Year of Price Cuts Exposes Crisis for Legacy Auto")

Not only that, the market for electric cars is going to overtake the market for gasoline cars. They don't need to keep 61% of the market forever -- they probably won't -- but if they held 15% of the market once >90% of new cars are electric they'd be selling more cars than they do now.
> They can lean into energy storage and other related power control businesses, that is their strength: they are an energy and power controls company.

Additional citations: https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-energy-highest-margin-busine... ("Tesla Energy is becoming the company’s highest margin business: Elon Musk")

https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/... ("Tesla Q3 2023 Update")

lol on that VW CEO quote. hadn't heard that one before.