[keep_reading]

You're being overly optimistic because you work in real estate and people are blowing rainbows up your ass. If there's a crash, JPow lowering the rate would prevent the housing value correction from taking effect and nothing good would come of it.

There MUST be a crash. Look at all the people who are sitting in homes worth many times more than they bought it. Significantly higher value than a few years ago. Do you think these people are doing well as a result? No! They can barely afford their insurance!

People want the house values high and their insurance dirt cheap, but it's not possible. The housing values have to drop a good 80% for people to be able to afford their homes long term again and for the insurance companies to stop pulling out.

[rcarr]

I want the market to crash and correct as much as the next guy but thinking house prices are going to drop 80% is pure fantasy land. What's more likely to happen:

- Big corporations and billionaires hoover up the properties forcing more and more people to rent in the long term (you will own nothing and be happy)

- Companies are finally forced to raise worker wages which, through a variety of means, they have managed to suppress for decades.

The latter is what should happen but the former is what is more likely to happen, with all the evil that entails.

[rickydroll]

I lost my house to foreclosure in 2008. I track the price according to Zillow and if memory serves, it dropped from roughly 600K to 520K. If we do have a correction will probably be on that order of magnitude. If the correction is much greater, a lot of people will thrown into poverty and onto the street. I suspect however there would be enough political will to make the banks take a haircut instead of everyone else.

[keep_reading]

> If the correction is much greater, a lot of people will thrown into poverty and onto the street. I suspect however there would be enough political will to make the banks take a haircut instead of everyone else.

Both are gonna happen. Yes, a lot of people will be thrown onto the street. A lot of banks will go under.

[HDThoreaun]

Institutional investors have largely gotten out of residential properties in the last year. Homes aren't good investments unless expanding supply is illegal, which it has been, but they could change.

[keep_reading]

> 80% is pure fantasy land

This hotel in SF just dropped 50% since 2016. Billionaires are over their heads on real estate; how are they gonna hoover it up when they can't afford their existing loan payments? It can and will happen.

https://sfstandard.com/2023/10/19/downtown-san-francisco-lux...

[rcarr]

A 50% reduction for one luxury apartment tower in the city most affected by remote work in the entire world and one that also has a notorious crime problem. What is your reasoning that this can be extrapolated to an 80% housing market crash on the national or global level?

[keep_reading]

Companies would not be able to raise wages fast enough to keep people in their homes

[rcarr]

Exactly. They've been getting away with it for close to 50 years at this point so the pain of getting them to where they should be if the profits had been shared fairly and not routed to investors and the C-Suite is absolutely massive. It would take a good few years (probably a decade) to get there, and a lot of companies that only exist because of that worker exploitation would go under, but overall it would end up being a good thing. If wage growth had kept pace like it should all these years, I'd wager the current property prices would actually make sense.

[gknapp]

I can tell you honestly that I am personally hoping for a crash, and that's in part because I work on real estate. Home prices are unsustainably high by such a margin that it's absolutely killed transaction volume. Sure, earnings per transaction will go down, but we desperately need an increase in volume.

Plus, I want housing to be affordable despite my economic incentives.

When I say that I don't see it happening, I just don't quite see all of the indicators just yet. If we start seeing a sharper increase in new listings coming on market, or new construction prices significantly dropping, then I'd certainly change my outlook.