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by mindslight 975 days ago
I personally see Bitcoin itself falling apart because it lacks the critical ecash property of untraceability, meaning it is the original non-fungible token. Regardless of how many honest verifiers are following the protocol, it's always possible to build a parallel system that judges which transactions/flows are legitimate or not according to completely different criteria - eg AML. This is happening slowly from both the bottom and the top - from the cryptocurrency industry with "blockchain analysis" and from the incumbent financial system with slowly creeping KYC rules. Right now you can still squint, use a mixer, and perhaps a less regulated exchange - just as ten years ago many people blissfully thought the whole thing was "anonymous". But the writing is on the wall. As soon as the more regulated exchanges start routinely rejecting transactions based on the source wallets' provenance, anything that's touched those wallets will become less desirable. Everyone will be drawn to the attractor of heeding the augmented rulesets to make sure they're not receiving tainted coins, and the currency will essentially fork.