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by kasey_junk 978 days ago
That’s not what the empirical evidence suggests (though it’s a big topic of study).

It’s closer to 0.4% for every 10% increase and the inflation happens almost immediately.

https://research.upjohn.org/up_workingpapers/260/

1 comments

0.4% you say but that paper says 0.7%. However, lets be real 10% to 1% vs 10% to 0.7% still gets the same message across.

But I'm still really not sure what you're trying to argue. My claim is that a X% wage increase will be followed by an <X% increase in inflation and so far all anybody has done is backed up my claim.

This isn't even rocket science. For any product you'll spend say $10 on labor, $15 on marketing, $5 on parts for a total of $30. If your labor costs goes up to say $20 then the total cost is $40 and one could expect the price that the 200% increase in wages lead to a 25% increase in the products price (inflation).

> In the base specification (p. 162), which included only monthly and yearly controls, the cumulative wage-price elasticity from three months before up to three months after a minimum wage hike was estimated at about 0.07, meaning that a 10 percent increase in the minimum wage is associated with a 0.7 percent increase in FAFH prices. Aaronson, French, and MacDonald (2008) used microlevel restaurant price data for the period 1995–1997, during which two changes to the federal minimum wage were implemented, to generate a wage-price elasticity of, again, about 0.07. 3 Though the empirical literature is somewhat limited outside of these two formative works (see Lemos [2008] for a review), other studies have found similar results in other countries and other cases.

I don’t particularly have a claim other than you can’t use minimum wage causes inflation as an axiom because it is theoretically contentious and doesn’t hold very strongly empirically.

The claim that it lags behind the wage change is empirically also not found.

> The claim that it lags behind the wage change is empirically also not found.

That's within the quote on the comment that you are responding to ... "cumulative wage-price elasticity from three months before up to three months after a minimum wage hike was estimated at about 0.07".

They found that increasing the minimum wage lead was followed by a 0.7% increase in prices 3 months later. 3 months later is "lagging".