[layer8]

It means we don’t understand the mapping between the model and the prompt-level semantics. It also means we can’t cleanly separate (1) controlling the conversational behavior of the model from (2) having a conversation with the model. It means we have a black box that we can experiment on, but we can’t plan or predict how to control and customize it, nor can we reliably predict and control its behavior, because we can’t accurately reason about it.

[kenjackson]

None of your conclusions are true. We can plan and predict just fine with it. It’s not fully deterministic, but still more predictable than people. And there are a lot of things we don’t understand but are fairly predictable, like the use of pain medications. They aren’t 100% predictable, but good enough to be able to administer as part of a well thought out regimen.

And given the fact that we can test it in a somewhat closed system gives us much more ability to predict its behavior than many things “in real life”.