| There is a bit of a point here re: maximizing expected values vs individuals only getting one lifetime to walk finite iterations of the path. So one path you take the startup route where you dedicate 10 years of your life going deep into a single idea in hopes you are one of the 1% to come up with a $1B idea. That dice has a $10M EV.
(actually exaggerated high bc you are unlikely to be a sole founder, unlikely to monetize the full $1B of a unicorn yourself, and 1% success rate is for YC cohorts.. which you have an X% chance of getting into to start with!). On the other hand you can focus on T-shaped skills in software engineering & domain expertise, possibly some entrepreneurship.. you course correct that career year to year in a 30 year career, possibly changing jobs every 2/3/5 years as appropriate. Let's exaggerate and say you have a 25% chance of making $500K. That dice has an EV of $125K.. peanuts! The $10M EV dice you get maybe 2-3 rolls in a lifetime versus ~40 rolls annually at the $125K EV dice option.
This still sounds like the first EV is better - $25M vs $5M! However 97% of EV=$10M dice rollers get $0 over there entire life.
Hypothetically every EV=$125K dice roller will win 7.5 times in their life because they get so many rolls. It seems to me the fetishizing of youth and 20 something founders whereas the optimal path for an INDIVIDUAL might be to roll the boring $125k dice for a while, building up savings and experience.. and then try a few rolls of the $10M dice later in life when you may actually have realer ideas, a professional network, etc. |