Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by leptons 975 days ago
Russia is a pariah state, sanctioned and with more sanctions coming. Yes, the sanctions are working - they take time, and the fall of the ruble absolutely shows this. The ruble has done nothing but drop over time. The Euro and the Dollar fluctuate but are not in the shitter like the ruble is. The more war that russia wants to wage, the lower their currency will fall and the rest of the civilized world turns their back to russia. And nobody should believe that russia's growth is "2.2%" when they lie about everything and anything, including the state of their economy.
1 comments

Again, the figures are coming from the IMF, who not only assess the figures independently, but also offer their own independent projections as well. And a weak currency is not an inherent problem. For net exporters it's a benefit. It means that right now Russia is getting more ruble for every ounce of oil they sell, yet the buyers aren't paying anymore for it. Win win for everybody. If those inflows don't create real problems, like inflation, then the low exchange rate is just driving wealth generation and economic growth. This is why export heavy places like China go out of their way to weaken their currency.

As for pariah, the main countries trying to "isolate" Russia are the US and the usual suspects. And "we" make up less than 15% of the world. It's why we carried out the equivalent of a nuclear economic attack with the sanctions, yet here we are, a year later, debating minutia when looking at the impact.

The ruble peaked in 2008 at 0.043USD, and this week it was at 0.009, and you're trying to tell me this is a good thing? lol, quit huffing Putin's farts.
Right, now look at economic data that directly influence things like quality of life, or economic stability of the country, and compare between 2008 and today. You'll find that things are better to a degree that cannot really be overstated. For instance real wages are up to a somewhat ridiculous degree, home ownership rates are substantially up (now higher than 90%!), and so on.

This [1] page is a data orgy for any sort of economic indicator that might interest you. The one thing to be careful about is to ensure you're using real (inflation adjusted) values and PPP adjusted values. A dollar goes much further in Russia whether buying tanks or tacos, so doing something like comparing nominal GDP values is misleading. It's like how a guy earning $70k in Bodunk is, in practice, earning dramatically more than a guy earning $70k in San Francisco. Even though the nominal figures are identical, $70k goes much further in Bodunk than San Francisco. Same thing, often to an even more extreme degree, between countries.

[1] - https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/home-ownership-rate

>For instance real wages are up to a somewhat ridiculous degree, home ownership rates are substantially up (now higher than 90%!), and so on.

lol, everyone with half a brain ran from Russia as soon as they could, and they aren't coming back if they can avoid it. And the ruble will continue to sink lower and lower. There's no reason to think it wouldn't and no matter how you try to spin it, that's not a good thing for Russia's economy.

The site has data on that too!

In 2008, there were 68 million employed persons. Today there are 74 million. In 2008 there was a population of 142 million, today it's 146 million. Even their fertility rate is up, after much focus on it. In 2008 it was 1.456, today it's 1.825 [1]. Still far too low, especially for a country with so much land, but this is a struggle all developed nations are currently facing and, by that standard, 1.825 is better than average.

These are simply data. The spin is how the media takes one single data point, and disingenuously frames is as a core targeted effect. The sanctions are certainly having an impact, but in terms of the desired outcome - the destabilization or collapse of Russia - they have been a complete failure. Instead the primary consequence of our actions has been to split the world in 2, almost certainly to our own detriment.

[1] - https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/RUS/russia/fertility-r...

You work hard to serve Putin. Lies are all that Russia has. There is no reason to believe any numbers that Russia supplies about their economy. They lie about literally everything. It's easier than having actual prosperity.