[stetrain]

Hm?

If Group A and Group B have similar outcomes, then the outcome would seem to not be correlated to the difference between Group A and B.

Whether or not the vaccine is a cause of long covid symptoms is not the same as whether the vaccine prevents long covid symptoms.

[goda90]

The real question would be can long covid symptoms develop from the vaccine alone, without covid infection.

[climatekid]

This. It’s also very possible people can get long COVID from COVID, but it’s exacerbated and/or more likely for those who are vaccinated

[stetrain]

We can say "it's very possible" to a lot of things in the absence of data.

[stetrain]

And that's tough to study in the general population since a lot of vaccine recipients have had covid infections, whether or not they even realized it or tested positive.

[psychlops]

I can't decipher what you are writing. My point is that he asked a question of whether vaccinations cause long covid and answered "probably not". Then spuriously used as his evidence information about unvaccinated people.

What do your groups represent?

[stetrain]

Group A is vaccinated. Group B is not.

Both groups can catch COVID. Both groups can develop long COVID symptoms.

This fits with "There seem to be plenty of unvaccinated people with long covid."

You said:

"For this to be logical, you need to state that vaccinated people do not have long covid."

Which I don't follow.

- If long COVID is unrelated to being vaccinated, but is caused by having a COVID infection, you would expect both vaccinated and unvaccinated groups to develop long COVID symptoms because they can both have COVID infections.

- If the vaccine causes long COVID (but a COVID infection itself does not) then you would expect non-vaccinated people to not get long COVID.

So if both groups get long COVID symptoms, it seems unlikely that the vaccine causes it while COVID does not. You also can't expect the vaccinated group to report 0 cases of long COVID since they can still have COVID infections.

Perhaps the long COVID rates would be different between the two groups. Or the severity of initial infection and symptoms. Maybe vaccinated people are more likely to have a COVID infection but not report any symptoms or a positive test result at the time of infection because their symptoms are milder.

My point is not to provide evidence or make a claim one way or the other, but just to say that the presence of long COVID in both groups is not evidence that the vaccine itself is causing long COVID.

[psychlops]

Good points and thank you for taking the time to clarify. I would still contend that knowing that unvaccinated people getting long covid does not provide any insight into vaccinated people getting long covid.

And I'm happy to amend my statement to "For this to be logical, you need to state that vaccinated people (who never had covid) do not have long covid."

[stetrain]

> I would still contend that knowing that unvaccinated people getting long covid does not provide any insight into vaccinated people getting long covid.

Right, but it does provide insight into the vaccine being the primary cause of long COVID, rather than an actual COVID infection.

So it depends on how you interpret “the vaccine causes long COVID” meaning exclusive to or inclusive of COVID also causing long COVID.

[stetrain]

And additionally

"vaccinated people (who never had covid) do not have long covid."

seems very difficult to study in the general population given the prevalence of COVID infections among the population and the ability for people to not know or test whether they have had COVID, even if they did have a mild infection.