[Natsu]

Part of the problem is that the basic statistical model simply neglects to differentiate between observing and doing, which changes the odds. This is very important when trying to reason about causality. When you observe an association like your thermometer shows a high number when it's warm out it's one thing, but when you set your thermometer to a high number you won't get any warmer. Whereas if you warm the room, your thermometer will rise. This symmetry breaking is captured by something called do calculus.