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by gala8y 982 days ago
This was my intuition in childhood. If you choose tails to be yours and start with tails then catch it, it is most likely to be tails. I came up with this observation myself. Weird.
2 comments

Yeah, I think you were just lucky that your superstition happened to be true.

Trying not to be disrespectful but I don't believe you intuited a 50.8 % bias. So nothing weird going on at all.

I know it's not on par with any real stats, but still... I just had this strong conviction that worked this way. The really interesting stuff is why it is so. I would think along lines of brain timing tossing and catching, eye-brain-timing rather than gravity and coin itself. Added: Yeah, now I remember actually manipulating timing of catch to achieve this.

> Trying not to be disrespectful

No worries, it is just me using high context communication style, where I assume that you know that I know this and I just share what was my experience in childhood (it was not like a single thought).

Noticed as a kid I could flip a quarter with a certain consistency, so I experimented a bit and quickly got to be >90% accurate with an ordinary (controlled) flip.

Pretty simple. In fact I just picked up a quarter and practiced (20+ years out of practice) and have some observations: 1) harder than when I was a kid, my fingers are lot bigger + stronger so it's not as precise from the start. A bigger and heavier coin would help. 2) the timing factor is bigger than I recalled.. essentially you can watch the coin flipping and get a subconscious/automatic/predictable sort of count/feedback to it. You can bring your hand up to the coin in the air at a precise moment pretty easily and "tell" (>90% accuracy today of the flips I just did that I considered successful before looking at the result) if the flip was predictable. Hand eye coordination, spatial awareness is very correlated to this skill, I suppose. 3) it really is the same side that comes up.. again I think because of the automatic watching/count/completion of full rotations, i.e. catching the coin at the end of a full rotation instead of a partial.

Came in handy occasionally.. if I knew I was going to be wrong (other person usually waits to call mid-flip) I could catch the coin a little lower to give myself a chance, or punk them by not putting it on the back of my hand as is more standard (they might demand a re-flip.. kind of like if you are playing rock paper scissors and one person goes on 3 and the other on 4).

This. When I tried to comment briefly yesterday that the coin falls on the same side, only then did I remember that I actually did that and that it has nothing to do with physics but rather neuroscience (and innocently bent morality - which was also the object of my internal observations). then I remembered that I had actually considered different coin sizes, but I was never as thorough in my attempts to bend the results as you were. oh... the playgrounds of childhoods...