General thesis is cream always rises to the top even in high interest rate environments.
Crappy, pointless startups will struggle and wither without the easy credit spigot.
That would be the peak of the cycle.
We're at the point now where it's, "clever engineer who has domain knowledge in some niche goes out on his/her own to make something novel that could be leveraged inside an established organization but isn't worthy of being a full fledged business".