[doodlebugging]

I think the main difference in our respective opinions is one of time scale.

You seem to stick with the paper in your focus on long time periods representing several hundred generations and the things that could limit or prevent human arrival or presence at the location during the time period proposed.

I am focusing on things that could plausibly happen to a nomadic group within a single human lifespan. It doesn't matter where on the time line one would place the nomadic group, these achievements are possible and the dating of these footprints using three complementary methods which all yield similar dates strongly suggest that people did in fact make it to New Mexico by that early date.

We will never know how they arrived unless we can find new sites to confirm a likely path of travel. They may have followed the coastline south in boats stopping wherever they found shelter and food. They may have used sleds or travois to move their worldly possessions cross-country over any terrain whether ice-covered, tundra, forested, or open plain. We know that they were adaptable and they were closely in tune with their environments, with a deep understanding of seasons, wildlife, plants, and weather. They had to be just to be able to make the trip to Beringia or to eastern Asia. Their knowledge had to be encyclopedic and like most knowledge in ancient cultures was almost entirely passed generation to generation orally. There are still cultures who pass these traditions orally, keeping alive the old knowledge and skills. [0]

We know nothing about the normal divisions of labor within a group but we do know from direct evidence that people did in fact make the trip overcoming all of the challenges they found along the way. Where they went after leaving those tracks is anyone's guess and is up for future discovery, just like the path they took to get there.

I read the paper that you linked. I appreciate the link.

I agree with your final sentence:

>It's pretty clear at this point that the coastal route happened eventually, but we need a lot more data to put together a sensible theory that can reconcile these outliers.

Though you and I reach different conclusions we can agree that a lot more research and discovery is needed to understand how these people arrived in present-day New Mexico that long ago.

I found on reading it that the paper did not discount the possibility that people followed the coast south or that they traveled overland for the entire journey into the interior of the North American continent during the time period when these tracks were probably made, LGM. In fact in the sections where they addressed this question they hold open the possibility that humans could have taken advantage of seasonal variations in sea currents, glacial meltwater flows, local warming of land routes, etc to make the trip.

Their data does not have a high enough resolution to answer the question of whether anyone attempted the journey successfully or unsuccessfully. Their resolution is on the scale of millenia whereas one would need seasonal data for insight into the answer. I guarantee that the humans that left those footprints had a detailed knowledge of seasonal variations in local conditions and they took full advantage of that in order to secure their survival.

I look forward to reading more about efforts to nail down when and how early humans made the journey into North America and to find out how they fared on arrival. I'm a geoscientist but I have always loved archaeology.

[0] https://hakaimagazine.com/features/with-old-traditions-and-n...

[AlotOfReading]

Responding to both this post and the other one. The thing is, I don't discount that they were masters of their environment and highly adapted to it within the limits of their technology. My point is that this is an incredibly, unbelievably hostile environment. I've had friends who have worked up on the ice with Inuit. I've visited the high arctic myself and organized high latitude expeditions somewhat farther south. The frostbite from those experiences was more than sufficient to give me a deep respect for the environment.

That's today, with modern equipment and a relatively tame polar climate. The coastal North Pacific during the LGM was an entirely different beast. We don't have a lot of direct evidence from Beringian populations during the LGM. What little evidence we have from their immediate ancestors in Siberia is that the onset of the LGM caused severe regional depopulations, with most survivors seemingly fleeing to refugia like PHSK, inland Beringia, and the south. There's still an open debate whether this depopulation was total (as in no human habitation of the region) or merely near-total, with most scholars leaning towards the latter these days. Humans definitely struggled.

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But assuming you're a Beringian survivalist who wants to run down to Oregon for some salmon, how would you do it (assuming a reasonably modern understanding based on Inuit adaptations)?

First, you actually want sea ice, not to travel along the land-bound glaciers during summer. Land-ice is dangerous, full of crevasses, and usually far from flat. The fjords and sounds of the modern high arctic are semi-inaccessible near large glaciers even to modern Inuit due to the dangers of summer icebergs. They usually wait until winter or spring to hunt and fish in these areas. However, it's the LGM and you probably don't have the incredible cold-weather technology of modern Inuit (better than most commercial jackets we can buy). Whatever boat you're using also isn't going to survive the oceanic storms either. Most modern boats can't. Both of these mean winter's out, even though it's the best travel season today.

However, there's a brief period between the end of winter and the beginning of summer other places like to call Spring. The ice is increasingly dangerous as the season progresses, but it's traversable and you can shelter in the unglaciated coves during the summer as you head south. You repeat this for years and maybe you can get enough people south of the ice to survive before the ice age rears its head again and collapses the fragile marine ecosystems you rely on by starving them of sunlight with permanent sea ice.

It's possible, but unbelievably tough. Why would you leave the relatively temperate Beringian climate for this kind of hell? The paper's implicit answer is that things might have been just good enough for a short while that this was plausible, even with all the ecosystem recovery that had to happen to make it a viable route.

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Alternatively, you go way the hell out past the Aleutians into the middle of the Pacific to try and catch a current back south. If you hit a storm, you will almost certainly die. This is technically possible, but it stretches the bounds of credulity to believe a viable population got south of the ice this way.

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The paper doesn't really get into these kinds of specifics because, well, climate paper. It's very hard to get high resolution climate results, so I'm impressed that the data is even this good (as an archaeologist).

[doodlebugging]

I appreciate you taking time to read all that and compose a well thought out reply.

I understand the challenges these people would've faced dealing with local environmental issues common to the seasons they experienced. I wish we had more examples of the tools and technologies available to them so that we could write accurate stories about how they survived and prospered or simply endured. The important thing though is that we know they dealt with all their challenges and survived. These people were resilient.

I think the large collection of footprints at White Sands tells us that it is not necessary for a viable population of humans to make the journey, only for a single small group. The fact that there are multiple levels of tracks of humans and extinct land animals together supports the conclusions one could draw from the materials used in dating of the tracks and implies that those who made the journey went on to occupy the region for generations.

It's a fascinating subject and there will be more debate over the years but I think archaeologists will come around to the notion that modern man found his way into the interior of North America a long time before or at some point during the LGM and they found a home where there was a mild climate supporting plenty of game and shelter and they took advantage of that.

That is the reality of the tracks at White Sands. Some people took an opportunity to go south and once they completed that challenge they found themselves in a land of plenty and they made themselves at home. Whether they built a boat and sailed icy seas hoping for the best, or followed local game south overland across thawing tundra during a warm spell is something we will need to study. Maybe they just picked a leader like our Dads who couldn't find his way to the grocery store without a map and would never admit to being lost and eventually, after following this guy for months they found themselves south of the ice and the end morraines in an area with abundant game and at that point they composed their first songs and oral histories to tell the tale of their survival and rebirth in a new land of plenty.

As a historical novel it would be great.

[AlotOfReading]

The reason I'm talking about a viable population is that the probability of us finding a site from a single band, or even a small group rounds to zero. Dating errors are far, far more likely than that. If the footprints are correctly dated, they almost certainly indicate a low density population spread across the continent.

However that begs the question of where those people went, genetically. It's much less interesting if they aren't ancestral to modern native Americans, so I'll ignore that. If they are, there should be a fairly clear genetic evidence of the divergence, rather than the known divergence long after these footprints are dated. You can make a handwavy argument that the southern population was so small that a later migration overwhelmed their genetic contribution, but then why was their population so small, given the abundant resources? Similarly, we don't see late quaternary extinctions meaningfully start until at least the end of the LGM. There's arguments you can make to vaguely explain this, but none of them really fit with the idea we have from earlier with these people being highly adaptable, high technology hunters. We'd also expect things like charcoal (admittedly LGM records are sparse), environmental DNA (quite possibly no one has looked at the appropriate layers in the right areas with this, but the ones I've seen have not detected human presence), floral changes, etc.

These sorts of incongruities continue everywhere we try to reconcile these dates. Of course, we could ditch the narrative angle and simply say "here's a disparate collection of dates and facts", but that's not very useful as theory.

That's why I'm still on the conservative side of "we need more data", because the dates really do look good, but they're currently very hard to reconcile with what's known from independent lines of evidence.

[doodlebugging]

I agree with your first paragraph and with the fact that there is a need for new lines of evidence establishing who these people were and where they ended up.

>We'd also expect things like charcoal... ...have not detected human presence), floral changes, etc.

In addition to this type of evidence perhaps they should focus on locating DNA evidence from coprolites or similar traces of the humans who left those tracks. One track-way has been described as a young female carrying a baby and occasionally setting the baby on the ground. Perhaps there is a sample of human DNA from the child somewhere along that track set.

The geological situation in New Mexico before their arrival created natural shelters for these people during the vulcanism related to opening of the Rio Grande Rift which led to formation of a number of volcanic features across the region including lava tubes which would have made excellent shelters. The tuff from eruptions is easy to dig and as you can see in Bandelier National Monument northwest of there, durable shelters capable of being utilized for generations can be dug with simple tools.

During this time period, in present-day western New Mexico there was also active vulcanism. It's apparent that natural, durable shelter was available as was food and water so they would have no need to maintain a nomadic lifestyle. Excavation of some of the lava tubes nearest this ancient lake may provide some of the materials that help place these people in time relative to the rest of us.

Thanks for the discussion. I appreciate your insight.