[kulahan]

But the entire childcare market is run on such tight margins that they all require a model of having a waiting list for children, meaning the market is massively underserved by design.

It would seem to me that this is only likely to result in more childcare workers, making it more accessible to all, no?

[westurner]

After how much time would the nonlinear effects of the subsidy be expected to be apparent?

What hypothetical effect would discontinuation of the subsidy have: while it's initially resulting in labor shortage reduction and then after time t?

Are counterfactuals helpful for this problem?