[screye]

Genuine question, doesn't the ultra-orthodox wing reflect the popular opinion of the country ?

My understanding is that Iran has among the greatest Urban-Rural divides in the world, and that the rural population is large enough to democratically force their conservative views onto the urban population. Turkey seems to be in a similar position, but their proximity to NATO and Europe keeps them somewhat grounded.

> small group of extremists holds the entire country hostage

I'm just not sure that the group of people we consider extremists are that small.

[Centigonal]

Iran's Supreme leader and guardian council have ultimate veto power over all legislation and candidates.

In the past decade, there have been massive nationwide protests almost annually, often with election fairness as a theme.

The Iranian military has a special wing, the IRGC, that is dedicated to the Supreme leader and used to crush protest or dissent.

These are not characteristics of a functioning liberal democracy. If Iran's regime reflects the popular opinion of Iranians (which I believe it doesn't), then that's in spite of their government, not because of it.

[lingben]

What you write is correct, except for this part:

The IRGC is not a 'special wing' of the Iranian military. They are a completely separate organization which has no equivalency in Western societies or defense departments.

The IRGC is tasked with protecting and spreading Khomeini's brand of Islamic theocracy throughout the world. This is why you see Iranian proxies in Yemen, Nigeria, Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, etc.

The Iranian military is tasked with protecting the Iranian nation and people. The military is a lower priority and less funded that IRGC, especially since the IRGC is a major actor in Iran's economy via various bonyads.

[lingben]

GAMAAN has provided insight into Iranian opinions with intelligent polling and verification methods that correct for the Islamic theocratic regime's authoritarian control over society. The coles notes are that the majority of Iranians do NOT support the Islamic regime, are not religious and do not support the theocratic laws and regulations such as enforced hijab and other gender apartheid measures currently in place against Iranian women.

This video explains their methodology and results: https://youtu.be/YONfg85gPU4?t=4341

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/iran-secular-shift-g...

https://gamaan.org/survey-reports/

[y-c-o-m-b]

That is not possible to answer due to the very high level of oppression. I still have Muslim family back home in Iran, especially in rural areas of Gilan province. They are very much against the government and its form of rule, but they are also not too keen on the socially liberal aspects of western democracy either. If I were to draw a rough comparison to the US political spectrum, I would place them as moderates similar to Mitt Romney supporters, or at worst McCain. The ultra-orthodox - closer to the Ted Cruz types - is mostly made up of the the Mullahs and their following for which there are plenty, but far outnumbered by moderates and liberals combined. Again though, this is impossible to measure as if you go around surveying the country, most people (especially in the elder generation) will not publicly speak out against the government and its policies.

[red_trumpet]

Well, shooting down protestors is not democratic. Democracy is not a tyranny of the majority!

[realistic2020]

> Well, shooting down protestors is not democratic. Democracy is not a tyranny of the majority!

Are you speaking about Iran or the USA or Israel?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/08/george-floyd...

https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2023/05/un-experts-d...

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/rachel-corrie-ac...

[leaguedreams]

Iran is actually relatively unique in the developed world in that their urban population is about as conservative as the population as a whole (Japan is another example IIRC). There is nuance here (most of the conservative urban population is concentrated in certain cities and neighborhoods) but the urban/rural divide does not explain the political divide.

[Gud]

The Iranian government has killed thousands of people and repressed other viewpoints not supported by the ruling elite.

It is possible the general population in Iran support this. All I know is that in countries where the people are allowed to voice their opinions freely, they generally oppose raping and torturing prisoners.

[quotz]

But this also works for China. I dont see any nobel prizes awarded to the uyghurs yet

[catlover76]

I am only a little more informed than most people on the topic, but I think it's kind of like this:

The conservative majority likes having an Islamic Republic, and has a lingering "memory" of the corruption and such of the Shah's regime, but that doesn't necessarily mean they like what the current regime has become. And as another poster said, the majority of the country, whatever their social/religious views, seems to be fed up with the country's rather dire economic state. It's been that way for the past like 5 years at least.

[michaeltimo]

The main question is, what percentage of the society are these conservatives? What's the opinion of the rest of people? Unlike you, in my opinion, most people have good memories of the Shah's time (Zamane Shah). It's quite funny, but most of the hospitals that are now named after Khomeini Hospital were built by the Shah. Also most stadiums and universities.

Moreover, this is a superficial view of the story if we think that what annoys people in Iran is mostly economic. This can be seen even in the slogan of the biggest anti-government demonstration that started last year, "Women, Life, Freedom", the three things that has been oppressed in the last four decades. Yes, economic issues have put a lot of pressure on the people, but people's wishes should not be reduced to it.

[catlover76]

It's probably a little bit like they now think this is worse than Zamaan-e-Shah, and that time is now viewed with history's rose-colored glasses

But the Shah was overthrown for a reason (and his overthrow was good and just even if what succeeded it didn't pan out well), and was a pretty popular event.

In the absence of the Regime's latest round of oppression, where they really turned it up a notch, and in the absence of economic turmoil, I doubt there would be much by the way of serious protests. I don't believe that absolutely everything can be reduced to economic factors, but I think that's usually a pretty big motivator in terms of getting most of any population to care enough about something to risk life and limb to protest.