[amatecha]

How did you come to that estimation? The strength of the RFI on the waterfall suggests received signal strength comparable to someone transmitting on a 5w HT within, say, 5-10 miles (aka not in the immediate neighbourhood, but pretty nearby). Someone transmitting 3w at 1000km distance will not register even the slightest on any amateur receiver, even with RF gain absolutely cranked to the max and with a massive antenna.

[NovemberWhiskey]

I actually updated my post about the same time you wrote this response; I was just considering free-space path loss, which is not where most of the loss is in typical ham scenarios. Most of the 5W in the case you described is getting lost in a terrible compromise antenna, then due to line of sight effects (assuming that the user is not standing on a hill or something) and multipath.