| Over 100 years is entirely possible in this case. Under the Federal Sentencing Guidelines and precedent in the 2nd Circuit, the recommended total sentence will be stacked consecutively because SBF's "offense level" counsels life in prison. Here's the calculation. A. Max sentence: Wire fraud on customers (20 years max) + conspiracy to commit same (20) + wire fraud on Alameda lenders (20) + conspiracy for same (20) + conspiracy securities fraud on FTX investors (20) + conspiracy commodities fraud (25) + conspiracy money laundering (20). 145 years total possible B. Determine SBF's offense level under the Federal Sentencing Guidelines, §2B1.1 (fraud):
See https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/guidelines-manu... and Ctrl+F for "2B1.1" to ride along: Base offense level (7 levels) + Greater than $550,000,000 loss (30 levels) + Resulted in substantial financial hardship to 25 or more victims (6 levels) + Offense otherwise involved sophisticated means (2 levels) + Defendant derived more than $1mm in gross receipts from one or more financial institutions (2 levels, maximum, due to a cap from earlier calculation) + Violation of securities / commodities law and defendant was "associated with a broker or dealer" or officer/director of a "futures commission merchant" (4 levels) 51 levels C. Determine the Guideline sentencing range.
See https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/guidelines-manu... x axis: no criminal history. y axis, we calculated 51 levels. The Guidelines therefore counsel life in prison. D. Calculate sentence The maximum sentence for each count is between 20-25 years. Under the Federal Sentencing Guidelines § 5G1.2(d) and Second Circuit precedent, sentences will be stacked consecutively "to produce a combined sentence equal to the total punishment." United States v. Evans, 352 F.3d 65 (2d Cir. 2003). In our scenario, that would be 145 years. This is the same legal reasoning used in stacking Bernie Madoff's sentences in the same federal district court, by the way. E. Judge chooses sentence. He can depart downward from the Guidelines Appeals courts are deferential to trial court choices in sentencing, so Judge Kaplan will have substantial latitude in choosing a sentence. That said, a judge may not be too favorably disposed to a defendant who stole billions of dollars from over 1 million customers, most of whom were ordinary people; who used Tom Brady, Bill Clinton, Tony Blair, Shaq, and Larry David as unwitting pawns; who advertised his scam in the Super Bowl and splashed its name on an arena; who used customer money to buy lavish real estate in the Bahamas, purchase favor from politicians, and make reckless leveraged bets |
Given that half of the chart is taken up by >75-year sentences, with some of them in the 200s and 300s, before hitting life, federal prosecutors seem to be a lot more confident in the miracles possible in the federal prison medical system than I am.