[zby]

If 400 microbes that contact your body makes you sick - then what if one virus gets into a cell and produces 400 copies? It is certainly possible: "For example, SIV, a cousin and model for the HIV virus, is released from infected T cells with a burst size of ≈50,000 (BNID 102377) whereas cyanobacterial viruses have characteristic burst sizes of ≈40-80" http://book.bionumbers.org/how-many-virions-result-from-a-si... So if not just one - then a few initial virions should be able to produce the infectious dose.

I guess time is important here - the organism detects the initial virions and prepares defences - so if the infectious dose amount of virions comes after the organism is warned they fail to grow into an infection. But my intuition is that the complexity of that process and path dependence makes that infectious dose so variable - that it does not seem to be any useful.

[XorNot]

No this is all statistics again: probability that a viral particles survives in the body, probability that it successfully enters the cell (this is all chemical kinetics so it's not 100%), probability the cell survives long enough to replicate the virus, probability of an immune response picking up the lyzed cell immediately and then repeat for the daughter copies.

An analogous process would be human fertilization: it technically only takes 1 sperm to fertilize an egg, but it's millions in order to make the probability of it happening meaningfully high enough.

Of course some viruses are stupidly good at this: it's estimated 5 norovirus particles will trigger a full blown infection.