[amb23]

We're going to see a lot of smaller startups wind down by the end of the year: I know a few that have either wound down operations, or are in the process of an acqi-hire or asset sale to other firms. Anecdotally, I started hearing the numbers of startups in this position pick up significantly about a month ago (but I don't have a bird's eye view, I just pick up on industry news/gossip).

The rest are default alive, but growing slowly. The rapidly scaling startup model is gone for the time being: no one is trying to double headcount or take over a market segment. (Some AI startups are an exception, but that market is nascent/unpredictable.) Default alive startups can be fodder for acquisitions from larger, established firms as well, if VCs are willing to take a cut on prior valuations. It's not clear to me where those VCs are going to find their 10x power law exits without the kind of growth and scale that used to be the norm; default alive is not a good outcome for investors.