[HerculePoirot]

As a formal framework, probability theory relies on a series of axioms to hold (e.g. a measurable space of events), which enables a closure provided with interesting mathematical properties, but which is not necessarily representative of the way in which humans mentally form or process events. Given any description of the world we may always find a description which differs in some aspect from the previous one, adding any detail. As a modeling framework, the limitations of standard theory of probability to capture human reasoning is proven by the existence of several cognitive patterns (often named biases or fallacies) which do not follow what is predicted by the formal theory. The core limitation motivating the present contribution lies however in the mismatch between what humans see as informative and the definition of information given by Shannon, that triggered in the 90’s the introduction of Simplicity Theory (ST) . The present paper introduces a novel hypothesis concerning the theoretical bases which makes this cognitive model functional.

Unexpectedness and Bayes’ Rule – Giovanni Sileno and Jean-Louis Dessalles

https://cifma.github.io/Papers-2021/CIFMA_2021_paper_13.pdf

[red_trumpet]

> As a modeling framework, the limitations of standard theory of probability to capture human reasoning is proven by the existence of several cognitive patterns (often named biases or fallacies) which do not follow what is predicted by the formal theory.

I don't think probability theory (or more generally logic) tries to model human reasoning. To the contrary, it is a tool to make reasoning better by introducing rigour, and thus overcoming biases.

[HerculePoirot]

NATO – APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE

Recent COIN and CT operations around the world have brought to light an increased need for influence capabilities on local populations and key individuals. The understanding of the human terrain and its dynamics is the key for answering those new operational needs and obviously calls for a modeling and simulation effort. Our goal is to develop a simulation of the dynamics of the population in terms of attitude and behavior change and to use in training and decision aid applications. Building on a first generation model, the Hearts & Minds Impact Tool, available from a previous project, the current research work aims at a complete overhaul of the cognitive aspect of the model. This new model find its scientific foundations in Social and cognitive psychology and more specifically in Fazio’s model of attitude and Dessalles’ Simplicity Theory. By difference with most the existing models dealing with opinion dynamics, our model will specifically address the problem of attitude construction and adaptation toward Forces. Attitudes of individuals within the population will evolve based on the perceptions that have individuals on their actions, inter-personal factual communication and populations' social preferences. The first results of the simulation will be provided along with the description of the model.

https://perso.limsi.fr/sabouret/ps/MP-SAS-105-BROUSMICHE.pdf