[monocasa]

Now the talking point is 'well sure, they have 7nm. But if we cut off their duv stepper access they won't be able to maintain the steppers they have. And definitely won't be able to make euv steppers'.

Meanwhile in reality they already have at least 28m DUV steppers indigenously built and are rumored to have a few 7nm capable DUV steppers doing shuttle runs. And are doing really neat things in the EUV space taking a different direction than ASML, essentially using a particle accelerator rather than a tin laser.

It's been clear now for over a decade that every time we cut them off from a technology they produce indigenous versions. We cut them off of chips to go in a supercomputer and within five years they had the world's fastest supercomputer on indigenous designed chips with Tianhe-2.

[chii]

This problem is likely that the head(s) that decide policies cannot think of more than order 1 logic.

You don't assume the "enemy" will just bow down. Your policies must include their reaction. Like playing chess, you aren't just checkmating the king.

The best scenario for the west would've been to integrate themselves into the chinese high tech supply chain, such that their indigenous companies cannot exist without massive state subsidies (because they aren't in a position to compete), which drains other aspects of the state's budget, and in turn, allow the western companies the profits required for further innovation and new tech.

The export bans and the rhetoric around that is so short sighted. The loss in profit will directly affect the research into the next generation. The lack of western tech means the chinese indigenous chip makers will, by necessity, invent the tech themselves.

[FooBarWidget]

> The best scenario for the west would've been to integrate themselves into the chinese high tech supply chain, such that their indigenous companies cannot exist without massive state subsidies

This was exactly the situation before the sanctions. That's why the Chinese semiconductor industry back then developed at a snail's pace: no Chinese company wanted sucky Chinese suppliers because foreign ones are better. Chinese suppliers developed competence slowly because nobody wanted to buy from them.

[4gotunameagain]

> We cut them off of chips to go in a supercomputer and within five years they had the world's fastest supercomputer on indigenous designed chips with Tianhe-2.

You're thinking of Sunway TaihuLight. Tianhe-2 is Intel, TaihuLight is ICC, Chinese domestic Sunway processor