[hellojesus]

Thanks. I misread the article as needing to be replaced at that point and not that they should at least last that long. A reread says that they should expect to last 10 years. I assume they'd go longer with even more range degradation.

Does the expected battery replacement at years 8-12 kill the resale value for models older than 8 years?

[tzs]

People are actually mostly getting good performance well beyond that. Estimates are now typically that most people can expect 15-20 years or more, unless they use the car in someplace very hot, always use a very fast charger, charge up to full every time they can, and things like that.

It seems to be distance that matters more than time. Tesla has found that for their oldest models, most people still have around 90% capacity at 200k miles. The average American takes about 14 years to drive 200k miles.

The data suggests that if you don't need a low mileage battery pack replacement, because say a particular model year turns out to be a dud you will probably get 150k or more miles.

Here's some articles on EV battery life [1][2][3].

My expectation is that there will be a pretty good used market for EVs.

For example, for my next car I'd like an EV and I want to get at least 100k miles with nothing but routine cheap maintenance and replacement of consumables such as tires and fluids.

A used EV might be ideal for that, say one with 50k miles on it. That would be enough to be past early failures due to a bad model year, but still should have well over 100k left on it with good capacity.

[1] https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batter...

[2] https://blog.evbox.com/ev-battery-longevity

[3] https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a44852031/how-long-do-elec...

[hellojesus]

This is good news, thank you. I've wanted a Leaf for a long time but the prices skyrocketed when covid hit. I may start to look at them or the bolt again.