[UncleMeat]

You absolutely must be able to create unique and reasonably strong passwords for each of the services you use. This is the absolute most critical first step in account management.

From here, we can have a discussion about broad behavior and individual behavior. We observe that at scale people reuse passwords if they are not using a password manager. End of story. Getting people to use a password manager at scale is the single largest practical improvement in account security for the general population that we have available to us right now. This is even true with the risk of a vault being stolen and unlocked. I've never seen any data that even remotely challenges this point.

Cloud management of passwords is basically non-negotiable for most people. "Oh fuck, my vault was on my computer and I dropped it on the floor and the disk broke" will be a constant occurrence. Getting everybody to properly back up their vaults is not feasible at scale.

You can separately talk about specific people if you want. If you are capable of creating unique and sufficiently strong passwords for all of your accounts, then go ahead and avoid a password manager. This will mitigate a marginal risk for you.