| There are tipping points. For ic there's the tipping point where the engine is common enough that 'enough' fuel forecourts have the fuel. There's the tipping point where the fuel is in every forecourt. For EVs there's the tipping point where it becomes normalised, not something that just sandal wearers use. There's the TCO tipping point, there's the purchase price parity tipping point, there's the tipping point where there are 'enough' chargers, there's the tipping point where chargers are everywhere. I don't object to all these being combined into one grand tipping point, they're all fuzzy anyway. But I don't think you can put an exact figure on it, and I also don't think tipping point implies it will completely take over the market. For a start, diesel and petrol both come from oil, using more of one is going to increase supply of the other so if it isn't used prices will fall. Second petrol and diesel have different strengths and weaknesses, which is why you don't tend to see petrol lorries or diesel scooters. I think an ev tipping point has more potential to be self reinforcing though. As less of the electorate has ic cars, it's more politically acceptable to increase taxes on it. People will become less accepting of the externalities of IC cars, and ultimately you don't have petrol / diesel piped to your house so as the market shrinks, finding fuel is going to become harder. |