[_moof]

A friend works in environmental science and his advice when it comes to cars and climate is to keep your car for as long as possible, regardless of gas vs. electric. Obviously YMMV but generally speaking the emissions "cost" of manufacturing and delivering the car in the first place is huge, and the way the numbers work out, it's better to amortize that over as long a time as you can than it is to frequently buy a replacement, even if it's electric.

[avar]

Your friend may understand environmental science, but clearly not economics.

If you don't keep your car you'll sell it. You won't be moving the needle on how long it'll take to amortize that initial manufacturing cost, it'll just happen with someone else driving it.

Likewise if you don't buy a new car someone else will, you're not going to move the needle on the overall supply.

I don't recommend buying new cars, but if you consider the above it's pretty much pollution-neutral.

All you're really doing is paying a premium in order to be the first in a long line of owners to drive that vehicle.

[PopAlongKid]

You appear to be making an unfounded assumption that regardless of how many owners it has, any given vehicle will remain on the road the exact same number of years.

If an owner decides to keep and maintain their car longer than they would have in the past, that car will stay out of the junkyard longer and therefore reduce the need to produce new cars. They will use some of the money they would have spent on a new car to keep the old one going longer, and still pocket the rest of it as savings.

[avar]

I'm not, I'm assuming it'll average out.

It's no more likely on average that the current owner is an enthusiast that's extending the usable lifetime of the vehicle than the next owner.

[rurp]

Most households keep a fairly fixed number of vehicles. Selling more moderately used vehicles into the used car market will result in more old vehicles being retired sooner.

[1270018080]

I like the idea that plug-in hybrids are the best choice. Battery supply is the limiting factor, so 100 plug-in hybrids that can do 50 miles of electric driving are overall better than 10 electrics that can do 500 miles.

Especially since basically 99% of drives are under 50 miles.

[kwhitefoot]

Plug in hybrids would be the best choice if anyone actually plugged them in. Most PHEVs here in Norway are leased and exist only because they are cheaper than the petrol version. The leasing companies say that only a small fraction of them are ever charged.

[seanmcdirmid]

That assumes that the used car market isn't a thing. Richer people (those who can afford new cars) keeping their cars as long as possible would definitely reduce overall demand for cars by killing the used car market, which I guess is also a good thing if you care about the environment (but in a harsh unintended consequence kind of way). Or perhaps new economy cars would become a thing again, kind of like the ones they drive around in China (or Japan). They aren't designed to last more than 4-6 years anyways.