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by Nevermark
999 days ago
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> But...they have.
How many stories have there been about how GPT-3 and GPT-4 have gotten worse over the period they've been out? They are experimenting with trade offs. In this case, things like appropriateness, less overconfidence, etc. That isn’t indicative of any slowdown. > Sure, people are working on more improvements, but they're not here yet, and while that doesn't mean they will never come, it does mean that, compared to what appeared to be a rapid rush of "AI" progress, things have slowed down. I don’t follow. People and teams keep publishing and releasing new techniques but big projects don’t release major updates as quickly. How are your arguments more relevant to GPT4 than they would have been for GPT3? Earlier models? |
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Yes, people are still working on stuff. I never said they weren't. I never said they were working any less hard than they had been.
But progress has slowed down from the leaps that it took over the past couple of years to get us to GPT-3 and GPT-4. Whatever "new models" are doing in September 2023, they are absolutely not making the same clear advances that we saw previously. They are incremental improvements. Which is good! It's important! It's progress! But it's unquestionably slower than the breakthrough that led to this generation of LLMs.
Now, it may be that that wasn't what you were thinking of when you said things haven't slowed down, but that was absolutely not clear from your post. And there have been enough people trumpeting loudly that the pace of progress would continue exactly as fast as it was before—breakthrough after breakthrough, leading rapidly to GPT-5 and beyond, and causing millions of white-collar jobs to be automated—that to simply say, without qualification, "things haven't slowed down" is, at best, ignorant of the way it will be taken by many.