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by housemusicfan 1011 days ago
10%?! 10% is huge. So we should assume presumption of guilt with a 10% error rate?

If 10% of all planes crashed, you would never set foot on one. For comparison, the chance of dying in a plane crash is 0%... to the 7th or 8th decimal place.

The people that should be ashamed are those making false accusations, and those dumb enough to believe them.
2 comments
voganmother42 1011 days ago
You can presume or do anything you want with statistics, but your example was gross and if you think 10% chance of it being correct means you should spout it…yikes

But saying things like that, well..its bad for victims of false accusation as well, notice how I didn’t specify?

Good news is, people who put the type of comments out there like yours - they are their own reward - enjoy the world you are making for yourself, il steer well clear

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hn_acker 1010 days ago
A single person can have different standards for different situations. Your plane crash example is not about guilt, it's directly about life and death. The threat of being wrong about Russell Brand's alleged sexual assault is quite far removed from my own fear of death. If I mistakenly believe the allegations, I get a personal lesson in the risks of jumping to conclusions and trust YouTube a bit less, but I can still rest relatively easy knowing that criminal courts in the US still use the presumption of innocence. If I mistakenly believe in Brand's innocence, I trust myself a little less, and the next time I find out about a famous stranger's rape allegations I read into it and ask myself whether the denials read like Brand's denials.

But I digress. In this case, YouTube, not a random commenter on Hacker News, had a decision to make. Consider these four possibilities:

1. YouTube demonitizes, allegations are false. YouTube gets social ire from people online and angry politicians, and a few complaints from advertisers, but even the angry people will probably continue to use YouTube due to switching costs.

2. YouTube demonitizes, allegations are true. YouTube pats itself on the back in hindsight. Little changes, but the status quo was good for YouTube anyway.

3. YouTube doesn't demonitize, allegations are false. YouTube temporarily loses a few advertisers before the truth comes out, but things return to the status quo in a few months.

4. YouTube doesn't demonitize, allegations are true. A few advertisers leave for a year or longer. News organizations eagerly field complaints from advertisers and disgruntled YouTube employees.

None of the possibilities are devastating, including money-wise. On the other hand, the fourth possibility is worst for YouTube's reputation by a significant margin, and at a 90% chance too.

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