[iksm]

The main twist is that we don't know the future but we know how theorical QCs are able to break currently used cryptography, with QCs algorithm like the Shor algorithm: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shor%27s_algorithm

"As such, as quantum technology advances, there is the potential for future quantum computers to have a significant impact on current cryptographic systems. Forecasting the future is difficult, but the general consensus is that such computers might arrive some time in the 2030s, or might not arrive until 2050 or later." quoted from:

https://datatracker.ietf.org/doc/draft-ietf-pquip-pqc-engine...

[vlovich123]

> The main twist is that we don't know the future but we know how theorical QCs are able to break currently used cryptography

Under the constraints of us correctly modelling the math of QC. Isn't it possible that we have gaps between our models of QC and how it works in reality that could make it such that these algorithms can't actually offer any speedup over classical approaches in the real world? Or similarly, even if they do work, maybe it's just impossible to build a computer with sufficiently many qubits to outperform classical approaches. Anyway, massive gap between theory and practice with no indication we're bridging it in meaningful ways.

[iksm]

> Under the constraints of us correctly modelling the math of QC.

You're right.

Those questioning are legit, and we don't know.

It could even turn that the post quantum procedures we chose in our times produces messages quickly breakable by classical computers. And that eventually one day, someone discovers it while trying to solve another problem and decides to warn everyone the right way (yay).

In such unpropitious (but, we still don't know) scenario, how cute we'll be if all that attempt for protecting us from the future were sincere.

[bawolff]

> Isn't it possible that we have gaps between our models of QC and how it works in reality that could make it such that these algorithms can't actually offer any speedup over classical approaches in the real world?

If BQP=BPP or if BQP did not accurately model a quantum computer, i think that would be a much more interesting result than an actual working quantum computer. It would be world shattering.

[vlovich123]

Or BQP is a purely theoretical construct with no real-world counterpart. No world shattering result necessarily.

There’s plenty of math that exists purely in the virtual real with no connection to physical reality. Math is a language to describe any possible universe. That doesn’t mean anything we say in it necessarily applies to our universe.

[bawolff]

> Or BQP is a purely theoretical construct with no real-world counterpart.

I would consider that world shattering. It would suggest significant flaws in our understanding of the universe which would be very exciting.

Honestly i can't think of a more earth shattering discovery. It would be on par with aliens landing and saying we come in peace.

> There’s plenty of math that exists purely in the virtual real with no connection to physical reality.

Obviously.

The earth shattering part is if quantum physics goes from an accurate description of most of the universe to one that isn't.

What you are basically saying is any theory could be wrong. Well duh, but that describes literally all earth shattering scientific discoveries.