[krapp]

In many cases, yes. You'll often find the actual conspiracy that turned out to be true only had a tangential relation to (and few if any specific details in common with) what conspiracy theorists were talking about. Although the conspiracy theorists will always take credit for "being right all along."

And invariably, the actual conspiracy gets revealed by parties other than conspiracy theorists themselves, because the conspiracy theorists don't actually have insider knowledge, they're just doing the strings and thumbtacks thing and making guesses.