[nabakin]

> it's a sign of maturity

Exactly. It seems like a lot of people don't realize this. We will never get that insane rate of innovation in smartphones again. These small incremental updates are what we are getting for the rest of our lives. What innovation we brought in a year, will now take 10 years because smartphones have matured and unless there is a major paradigm shift, this is more or less the final version of smartphones.

The entire computer and internet industry has been maturing too. We are getting to the point where the only significant increases in processing power are coming from spending more on the silicon. Internet companies have secured their markets and it hasn't changed much in the past 5-10 years.

If you want further crazy levels of innovation, it's time to look elsewhere. Computers have had their time. Now it's time for the next big thing. Maybe that's AI, quantum computers, gene editing, or nuclear fusion. Hell I doubt it, but after some years maybe cryptocurrency will have a breakthrough and we'll go rushing back to it. This is a story as old as the wheel.

[ajmurmann]

Computers will continue to improve, but it's gonna be gradual which in itself can be incredible. I just bought my wife a tiny computer for $250 to play some old games via LAN together. The thing is ~1/4 the size of a mac Mini and faster than my old gamin PC from 10 years ago. Easy to cough at being faster than a 10 year old computer, but given the tiny size and cheap price, it's incredible! It's not as incredible as going from a bad camera in your phone to a camera good enough to not take a standalone camera on vacation, but amazing nonetheless. You only see it though if you actively take inventory of past improvements.

IMO, taking a look back and appreciating the sum of incremental improvements is something we should do much more of frequently in all areas of society and life.

[nabakin]

For sure. I think computers and the internet will continue to be more innovative than most other industries, but the rate will be slower than what we are used to.

There was a time when performance would double every couple of years, but now we see around 10% performance gains over the same amount of time. Nothing to scoff at, but not enough to drive as crazy innovation as was previously commonplace.

I wonder where the market will go after we've exhausted lithography.