[perihelions]

What an unintuitive and sketchy-looking Bayesian model. They only have 11 chemicals in the database they're matching that messy IR spectrum against: 6 reasonable ones, and 5 bullshit ones that are only there because theory papers suggested that they'd be biomarkers of alien life. And, fit to just those 11 chemicals, the best-fit includes one of the bullshit ones (dimethyl sulfide, (CH₃)₂S).

https://stsci-opo.org/STScI-01HA2G716KS9YGAGVY1WBVFJ8Y.pdf

Is this approach, like, sane? I'm not a Bayesian statistics expert.

[kjkjadksj]

A true Bayesian I don’t think would use evidence for life on earth as the silver bullet for life elsewhere. They’d at least set up a model that considers all possible planets in the entire universe and test to see if these putative signatures even give you the power to identify earth as a life holding planet with confidence.