[neftaly]

If this article is true (i.e. the quoted bullet points were actually said by Kwon) I would feel a bit more optimistic. I haven't checked the veracity at all.

The metaculus wager says replication within 15 months. Point #2 #3 #5 & #8(!) is that this stuff is really really hard to make. Point #6 is pretty noncommittal about how long till the recipe is published (in the context of 20 years of work).