Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by beefield 1021 days ago
I was referring his claims about electrification of glo al car fleet. Now that you mention, he had also some claims about lithium needs for replacing all fossil production with lithium batteries, baut also there the assumptions were not so realistic if I recall correctly. If you want to quote him, I would recommend going through his assumptions very carefully.
1 comments
beefield 1021 days ago
Oh yeah, and even then:

https://www.theengineer.co.uk/content/news/kaust-spinout-wil...

We have not run out of any mineral ever and I don't believe we ever will.

link
SinParadise 1021 days ago
> We have not run out of any mineral ever and I don't believe we ever will.

Is mineral not a finite resource? I don't understand your source of optimism here.

link
beefield 1021 days ago
We very rarely need specific minerals. We need energy, nutrition, conducting materials etc. Most of these needs we can fulfil with many different minerals. And the amlunt of all [1] minerals in earths crust is staggering compared to any foreseeable futre, so we are just going to flip to whatever is easiest/cheapest to dig. None will "run out" as in there is no more available, only that the remaining ones are too expensive to extract at the moment.

[1] Helium may be one of the exceptions here, but I would guess even that is produceable with some future nucleaf technology given enough money.

link
SinParadise 1020 days ago
> We very rarely need specific minerals.

Because historically we do not have technology complex enough to need specific minerals. Now we do.

> Most of these needs we can fulfill with many different minerals. And the amount of all [1] minerals in earths crust is staggering compared to any foreseeable futre, so we are just going to flip to whatever is easiest/cheapest to dig.

There is another factor at play though: energy required to extract the minerals. Ones deeper in the earth's crust are likely more energy intensive to extract and perhaps even purify. At some point it won't be worth it.

link
walleeee 1020 days ago
> None will "run out" as in there is no more available, only that the remaining ones are too expensive to extract at the moment.

Right, the issue is cost of extraction (in materials, energy, and externalities, the only real currencies), not exhaustion of the reserves. I think Simon would argue 1) that the degree to which the current economy depends on fossil resources (e.g. for metal-working; how do we reach the required temperatures without melting an electrically-powered heating element?) has not been grasped by policy-makers or the public, and 2) that we are already in energy decline, exacerbated by ongoing failure of ecosystem services. In other words, he thinks we have bled too much momentum and triggered too many blowbacks to "level off" at current living standards, if that were even a viable path forward (given the rate at which we are destroying the biological basis for human life, it is not).

link